Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 50
6 February 2021Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 13.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Daniele Rimpelli
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Marco Lazzaroni
- 5David Sisi+1.5
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Johan Meyer
- 8Michele Lamaro
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Juan Ignacio Brex
- 13Marco Zanon
- 14Luca Sperandio
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Danilo Fischetti
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 22Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 23Carlo Canna+1.5
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Dylan Cretin
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Arthur Vincent
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Louis Carbonel
- 23Damian Penaud-1.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.