Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 25
13 February 2021Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- -2.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Blade Thomson
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12James Lang
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Dave Cherry-4.9
- 17Oli Kebble
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Richie Gray-0.1
- 20Gary Graham
- 21Scott Steele
- 22Jaco van der Walt
- 23Huw Jones-6.4
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhodri Jones
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20James Botham+3.8
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Uilisi Halaholo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.