Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
52 – 10
20 March 2021Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Dave Cherry-4.9
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Sam Skinner-0.5
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Scott Steele
- 10Stuart Hogg(c)
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Sean Maitland+4.2
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Alex Craig
- 20Nick Haining
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Jaco van der Walt
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Johan Meyer
- 8Michele Lamaro
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Federico Mori
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Andrea Lovotti
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Marcello Violi
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Marco Zanon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.