Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 39
11 September 2021Gold Coast, Gold Coast · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 18.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Facundo Gigena
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Santiago Medrano
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Facundo Bosch
- 17Carlos Muzzio
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 20Juan Martín González
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 23Emiliano Boffelli
New Zealand
- 1Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 2Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick(c)+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11George Bridge
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Joe Moody-0.9
- 18Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Ethan Blackadder
- 21Brad Weber
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23Quinn Tupaea-8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.