Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 26
11 September 2021Gold Coast, Gold Coast
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 18.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Lachlan Swinton
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Banks
Replacements
- 16Feleti Kaitu'u
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Rob Leota
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Reece Hodge
- 23Jordan Petaia
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Franco Mostert-1.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Marco van Staden-5.4
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 22Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 7 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.