New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 13
18 September 2021Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 19.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Ethan Blackadder
- 7Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 8Hoskins Sotutu
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11George Bridge
- 12Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Braydon Ennor
Argentina
- 1Facundo Gigena
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Santiago Medrano
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Santiago Socino
- 17Carlos Muzzio
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Domingo Miotti
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.