Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 8
25 September 2021Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 22.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-19.26623,146.81643 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Rob Leota
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Reece Hodge
Replacements
- 16Feleti Kaitu'u
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Tom Robertson+2.2
- 19Darcy Swain
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
- 23Jordan Petaia
Argentina
- 1Facundo Gigena
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Santiago Medrano
- 4Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Pablo Matera-1.1
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Santiago Socino
- 17Rodrigo Martinez
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Domingo Miotti
- 23Mateo Carreras+1.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.