Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 17
2 October 2021Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Darcy Swain
- 6Pete Samu-4.3
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Jordan Petaia
- 15Reece Hodge
Replacements
- 16Lachlan Lonergan
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Matt Philip
- 20Sean McMahon+6.7
- 21Jake Gordon-0.7
- 22James O'Connor-0.2
- 23Tom Wright+11.9
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Martinez
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Emiliano Boffelli
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Facundo Bosch
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Francisco Gorrissen
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Domingo Miotti
- 23Mateo Carreras+1.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.