New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 31
2 October 2021Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 8Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 9Brad Weber
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Ethan Blackadder
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard(c)-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Franco Mostert-1.0
- 20Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 23Francois Steyn+7.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.