France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 10
7 February 2022Saint-Denis, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Elevation
- 35 m
- Temperature
- 6.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Dylan Cretin
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Melvyn Jaminet
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20François Cros+9.1
- 21Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 22Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Toa Halafihi
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Marco Zanon
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.