France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 24
12 February 2022Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 2.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Melvyn Jaminet
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 21Dylan Cretin
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan(c)-8.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Joey Carbery+2.6
- 11Mack Hansen-4.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Carty
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.