Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 17
12 February 2022Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.2 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Taine Basham
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar(c)+0.4
- 11Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Seb Davies
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Jonathan Davies+5.6
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Sam Skinner-0.5
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 20Rory Darge-13.6
- 21Ben White-12.7
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Cameron Redpath
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.