Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 13
11 March 2022Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.3 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard(c)+1.0
- 6Seb Davies
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar(c)+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 20Jac Morgan+0.3
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 15Melvyn Jaminet
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Mohamed Haouas
- 19Matthis Lebel
- 20Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 21Dylan Cretin
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.