Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 33
12 March 2022Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Giovanni Pettinelli
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Toa Halafihi
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Pierre Bruno
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Ivan Nemer
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Braam Steyn+4.4
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Marco Zanon
- 23Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Sam Skinner-0.5
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Rory Darge-13.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Jamie Hodgson
- 20Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 21Ben Vellacott
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.