Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 5
19 March 2022Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Iain Henderson-1.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Kieran Treadwell
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Rory Darge-13.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris(c)+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21Ben White-12.7
- 22Finn Russell-13.7
- 23Mark Bennett-0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.