Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 19
11 February 2023Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Ethan Dumortier
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Gaëtan Barlot
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Sipili Falatea
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20François Cros+9.1
- 21Sekou Macalou
- 22Baptiste Couilloud
- 23Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.