England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 14
12 February 2023Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge(c)-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Jack Willis
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Ollie Hassell-Collins
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Henry Arundell
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.