Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 20
25 February 2023Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Ken Owens(c)+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Christ Tshiunza
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Owen Williams
- 11Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Mason Grady+3.4
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Bradley Roberts
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
England
- 1Ellis Genge(c)-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Jack Willis
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Anthony Watson-0.9
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Ben Curry
- 21Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Henry Arundell
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.