Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 22
12 March 2023Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 7.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.4 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray(c)-7.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Stuart Hogg(c)
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Hamish Watson-1.1
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.