Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 14
18 March 2023Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.3 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Sam Skinner-0.5
- 5Jonny Gray(c)-7.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Hamish Watson(c)-1.1
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Ollie Smith(c)
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Ben Healy
- 23Cameron Redpath
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Edoardo Iachizzi
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Simone Gesi
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Pierre Bruno
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
- 16Marco Manfredi
- 17Federico Zani
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Giovanni Pettinelli
- 21Manuel Zuliani
- 22Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 23Marco Zanon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.