Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 16
18 March 2023Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.8 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Ryan Baird-0.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Kieran Treadwell
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Jimmy O'Brien
England
- 1Ellis Genge(c)-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5David Ribbans
- 6Lewis Ludlam(c)+8.2
- 7Jack Willis
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Henry Arundell
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Ben Curry
- 21Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Joe Marchant
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.