South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 12
8 July 2023Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 11.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Jean Kleyn
- 5Marvin Orie
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen(c)+6.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Canan Moodie+6.3
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Joseph Dweba
- 17Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Evan Roos
- 21Deon Fourie
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Australia
- 1James Slipper(c)-3.3
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Reece Hodge
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Suliasi Vunivalu
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Matt Gibbon
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Richie Arnold
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Carter Gordon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.