Wales v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 6
24 September 2023Groupama Stadium, Lyon · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Australia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 192 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Jac Morgan(c)+0.3
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Henry Thomas
- 19Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 20Taine Basham
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 23Rio Dyer+5.1
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Dave Porecki(c)
- 3James Slipper-3.3
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Richie Arnold
- 6Rob Leota
- 7Tom Hooper-6.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Jordan Petaia
- 14Mark Nawaqanitawase
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Matt Faessler-2.1
- 17Blake Schoupp
- 18Pone Fa'amausili
- 19Matt Philip
- 20Fraser McReight+12.2
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Carter Gordon
- 23Suliasi Vunivalu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 254m | Carry metres | 295m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 3 | Offloads | 6 |
| 116 | Passes | 126 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 141 | Tackles made | 124 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 78.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 10 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 68 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 7 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 836m | Kick metres | 409m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.