France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
60 – 7
6 October 2023Groupama Stadium, Lyon
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 192 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20François Cros+9.1
- 21Baptiste Couilloud
- 22Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 23Melvyn Jaminet
Italy
- 1Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 2Hame Faiva
- 3Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Paolo Garbisi
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Pierre Bruno
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Marco Manfredi
- 17Federico Zani
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Luca Morisi+0.0
- 23Lorenzo Pani
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 513m | Carry metres | 457m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 10 | Offloads | 4 |
| 164 | Passes | 164 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 132 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 18 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 86.0% | Scrum success | 50.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 92.0% |
| 87 | Rucks won | 85 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 993m | Kick metres | 403m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.