Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 14
7 October 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 15.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Iain Henderson-1.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19James Ryan-8.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Stuart McCloskey+4.8
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21Luke Crosbie
- 22George Horne+4.6
- 23Ollie Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 468m | Carry metres | 636m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 27 |
| 5 | Offloads | 11 |
| 160 | Passes | 235 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 195 | Tackles made | 140 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 27 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 60.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 82 | Rucks won | 113 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 989m | Kick metres | 739m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.