Wales v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 29
14 October 2023Orange Velodrome, Marseille · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 20.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Jac Morgan(c)+0.3
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Dewi Lake-5.3
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 20Christ Tshiunza
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Sam Costelow+2.7
- 23Rio Dyer+5.1
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Emiliano Boffelli
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 18Eduardo Bello
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 619m | Carry metres | 431m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 6 | Offloads | 8 |
| 144 | Passes | 142 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 166 | Tackles made | 95 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 71.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 58 | Rucks won | 109 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 34 |
| 744m | Kick metres | 1384m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.