England v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 16
21 October 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about England v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.3 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Joe Marchant
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Ollie Lawrence-1.4
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Deon Fourie
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 236m | Carry metres | 190m |
| — | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 14 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 4 | Offloads | 2 |
| 78 | Passes | 67 |
Defence
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 14 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 43.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 67 | Rucks won | 52 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 961m | Kick metres | 837m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.