New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
11 – 12
28 October 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.9 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 19 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 12Scott Barrett+2.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
South Africa
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 17Grant Williams-4.8
- 17Ox Nché-5.2
- 19Jean Kleyn
- 20RG Snyman+8.1
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 459m | Carry metres | 360m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 37 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 5 | Offloads | 7 |
| 221 | Passes | 84 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Tackles made | 209 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 37 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Lineout success | 60.0% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 91.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 115 | Rucks won | 56 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 1023m | Kick metres | 1002m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.