France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 38
2 February 2024Orange Velodrome, Marseille
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Paul Gabrillagues
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt(c)+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Posolo Tuilagi
- 20Cameron Woki-3.5
- 21Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Louis Bielle-Biarrey
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Peter O’Mahony(c)-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Calvin Nash
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19James Ryan-8.4
- 20Ryan Baird-0.9
- 21Jack Conan-2.8
- 22Conor Murray-1.4
- 23Ciarán Frawley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 93 | Carries | 113 |
| 288m | Carry metres | 374m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 119 | Passes | 180 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Tackles made | 118 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 78.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 75 | Rucks won | 92 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 619m | Kick metres | 968m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.