Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 27
3 February 2024Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.2 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Corey Domachowski
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Leon Brown
- 4Dafydd Jenkins(c)+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Kemsley Mathias
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Teddy Williams
- 20Alex Mann+5.6
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Ioan Lloyd
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Luke Crosbie
- 7Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu(c)-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Ben Healy
- 23Cameron Redpath
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Carries | 121 |
| 412m | Carry metres | 342m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 5 | Offloads | 10 |
| 194 | Passes | 140 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 156 | Tackles made | 163 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 21 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Lineout success | 67.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 110 | Rucks won | 92 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 962m | Kick metres | 1248m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.