France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 13
25 February 2024Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 6.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.2 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Posolo Tuilagi
- 6Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8François Cros+9.1
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Matthis Lebel
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Sébastien Taofifénua
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Alexandre Roumat
- 21Esteban Abadie
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Yoram Moefana+7.0
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Federico Mori
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Matteo Canali
- 20Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 21Manuel Zuliani
- 22Stephen Varney-4.1
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.