Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 29
9 March 2024Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 12.5 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 20Lorenzo Cannone
- 21Stephen Varney-4.1
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Federico Mori
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9George Horne+4.6
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Cameron Redpath
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 21Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 22Ali Price-11.2
- 23Kyle Rowe+7.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.