Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 45
10 March 2024Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Dafydd Jenkins(c)+8.2
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Owen Watkin-4.4
- 13Joe Roberts
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Evan Lloyd
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Alex Mann+5.6
- 20Mackenzie Martin
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Ioan Lloyd
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt(c)+5.6
- 9Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Nicolas Depoortère
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Sébastien Taofifénua
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Alexandre Roumat
- 21Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Yoram Moefana+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.