Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 13
16 March 2024Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.1 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Peter O’Mahony(c)-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Calvin Nash
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Harry Byrne
- 23Garry Ringrose-5.7
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Javan Sebastian
- 19Sam Skinner-0.5
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Cameron Redpath
- 23Kyle Rowe+7.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.