France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 31
16 March 2024Groupama Stadium, Lyon
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 192 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt(c)+5.6
- 9Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Nicolas Depoortère
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Sébastien Taofifénua
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Alexandre Roumat
- 21Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 22Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 23Yoram Moefana+7.0
England
- 1Ellis Genge(c)-12.8
- 2Jamie George(c)-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje(c)-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford(c)-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Ethan Roots
- 20Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Manu Tuilagi+5.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.