Wales v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 41
22 June 2024Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 17.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.6 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Matthew Screech
- 5Ben Carter
- 6Taine Plumtree
- 7James Botham+3.8
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Ellis Bevan
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Mason Grady+3.4
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Liam Williams+7.7
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Evan Lloyd
- 17Kemsley Mathias
- 18Harri O'Connor
- 19James Ratti
- 20Mackenzie Martin
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Eddie James
- 23Jacob Beetham
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Evan Roos
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Jordan Hendrikse
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Ntuthuko Mchunu
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Salmaan Moerat
- 20Ben-Jason Dixon
- 21Grant Williams-4.8
- 22Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.