New Zealand v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 15
6 July 2024Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v England
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 48 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Samipeni Finau
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Stephen Perofeta
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Beauden Barrett-1.1
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Tommy Freeman
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Alex Coles-2.3
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Ben Spencer-1.4
- 22Fin Smith+5.1
- 23Ollie Sleightholme
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.