Canada v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 73
6 July 2024TD Place, Ottawa
What the model says about Canada v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 21:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 70 m
- Temperature
- 22.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 12.2 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 7 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Canada
- 1Liam Murray
- 2Andrew Quattrin
- 3Conor Young
- 4Conor Keys
- 5Kyle Baillie
- 6Mason Flesch
- 7Lucas Rumball(c)
- 8Siaki Vikilani
- 9Jason Higgins
- 10Peter Nelson
- 11Nic Benn
- 12Ben LeSage
- 13Mitch Richardson
- 14Andrew Coe
- 15Cooper Coats
Replacements
- 16Jesse MacKail
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Cole Keith
- 19James Stockwood
- 20Sion Parry
- 21Brock Gallagher
- 22Talon McMullin
- 23Takoda McMullin
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Dylan Richardson
- 3Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 4Max Williamson+11.5
- 5Glen Young
- 6Gregor Brown-6.0
- 7Luke Crosbie(c)
- 8Josh Bayliss
- 9Gus Warr
- 10Ross Thompson
- 11Arron Reed
- 12Stafford McDowall(c)+9.8
- 13Matt Currie
- 14Jamie Dobie
- 15Harry Paterson
Replacements
- 16Robbie Smith
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Ewan Johnson
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21Ben Healy
- 22Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 23Ross McCann
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Canada | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 11 |
| 1 | Conversions | 9 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.