Tonga v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 36
13 July 2024Nuku'alofa, Nuku'alofa
What the model says about Tonga v Italy
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 21.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Tonga
- 1Isikeli Fukofuka
- 2Sekope Lopeti-Moli
- 3Ben Tameifuna(c)
- 4Adam Coleman
- 5Harison Mataele
- 6Josh Kaifa
- 7Fotu Lokotui
- 8Viliami Taulani
- 9Aisea Halo
- 10James Faiva
- 11Hosea Saumaki
- 12Malakai Fekitoa(c)
- 13Fetuli Paea
- 14Fine Inisi
- 15Taniela Filimone
Replacements
- 16Sosefo Sakalia
- 17Tau Koloamatangi
- 18Jethro Felemi
- 19Kelemete Finau
- 20Hapakuki Moala-Liavaa
- 21Manu Paea
- 22Semisi Maasi
- 23Nikolai Foliaki
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Edoardo Iachizzi
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Manuel Zuliani
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Jacopo Trulla
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 21Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Ross Vintcent
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.