USA v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
7 – 42
13 July 2024Washington DC, Washington DC
What the model says about USA v Scotland
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 25.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 13.9 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
USA
- 1Jack Iscaro
- 2Dylan Fawsitt
- 3David Ainuʻu
- 4Vili Helu
- 5Greg Peterson
- 6Sam Golla
- 7Paddy Ryan
- 8Jamason Fa'anana-Schultz
- 9Juan Philip Smith
- 10AJ MacGinty
- 11Nate Augspurger
- 12Tommaso Boni
- 13Tavite Lopeti
- 14Conner Mooneyham
- 15Luke Carty
Replacements
- 16Kapeli Pifeleti
- 17Jake Turnbull
- 18Paul Mullen
- 19Saia Uhila
- 20Benjamin Bonasso
- 21Ethan McVeigh
- 22Bryce Campbell
- 23Mitch Wilson
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Murphy Walker
- 4Alex Craig
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9George Horne+4.6
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Robbie Smith
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Luke Crosbie
- 21Jamie Dobie
- 22Ross Thompson
- 23Matt Currie
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| USA | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| USA | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.