Australia v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 28
13 July 2024AAMI Park, Melbourne
What the model says about Australia v Wales
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 9.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.5 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Charlie Cale
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Filipo Daugunu-7.5
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Josh Flook
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Josh Nasser-13.8
- 17Isaac Kailea
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Angus Blyth
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Dylan Pietsch
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Archie Griffin+9.9
- 4Christ Tshiunza
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Taine Plumtree
- 9Ellis Bevan
- 10Ben Thomas
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Mason Grady+3.4
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Liam Williams+7.7
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Evan Lloyd
- 17Kemsley Mathias
- 18Harri O'Connor
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20Mackenzie Martin
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Sam Costelow+2.7
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.