South Africa v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 25
13 July 2024Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 18.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Salmaan Moerat
- 20RG Snyman+8.1
- 21Marco van Staden-5.4
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris(c)-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Calvin Nash
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Caolin Blade
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Stuart McCloskey+4.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 8 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.