Uruguay v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
5 – 79
20 July 2024Estadio Domingo Burgueno
What the model says about Uruguay v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 31 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.9 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Reinaldo Piussi
- 4Felipe Aliaga
- 5Manuel Leindekar
- 6Manuel Ardao
- 7Santiago Civetta
- 8Manuel Diana
- 9Santiago Álvarez
- 10Felipe Etcheverry
- 11Nicolas Freitas
- 12Andrés Vilaseca(c)
- 13Tomas Inciarte
- 14Juan Manuel Alonso
- 15Ignacio Alvarez
Replacements
- 16Guillermo Pujadas
- 17Ignacio Péculo
- 18Diego Arbelo
- 19Diego Magno
- 20Lucas Bianchi
- 21Carlos Deus
- 22Joaquín Suárez
- 23Juan Bautista Hontou
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 3Eduardo Bello
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Joaquin Moro
- 7Marcos Kremer(c)-0.0
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 14Ignacio Mendy
- 15Santiago Cordero-1.8
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Calles
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Matias Orlando-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Uruguay | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.