Japan v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 42
21 July 2024Daiwa House Premist Dome, Sapporo
What the model says about Japan v Italy
- Kick-off
- 05:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 84 m
- Temperature
- 26.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takayoshi Mohara
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Eishin Kuwano
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Amanaki Saumaki
- 7Michael Leitch
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Taiki Koyama
- 10Rikiya Matsuda
- 11Tomoki Osada
- 12Samisoni Tua
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Jone Naikabula
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Ross Vintcent
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Jacopo Trulla
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Marco Zanon
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.