New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 10
17 August 2024Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 15.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 17.0 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 5Sam Darry
- 6Ethan Blackadder
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Mark Tele'a-5.2
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Lucio Sordoni
- 4Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 21Lautaro Bazan Velez-15.1
- 22Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 23Bautista Delguy+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.