South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 27
31 August 2024Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Ben-Jason Dixon
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 20Elrigh Louw
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Handré Pollard-4.0
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Ethan Blackadder
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Sam Darry
- 20Samipeni Finau
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Mark Tele'a-5.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.