New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 13
28 September 2024Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23David Havili+0.9
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Isaac Kailea
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Josh Flook
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.