Japan v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 64
26 October 2024International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama
What the model says about Japan v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Atsushi Sakate
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Sanaila Waqa
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Amato Fakatava
- 7Kazuki Himeno
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Shinobu Fujiwara
- 10Harumichi Tatekawa
- 11Malo Tuitama
- 12Nicholas McCurran
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Jone Naikabula
- 15Yoshitaka Yazaki
Replacements
- 16Mamoru Harada
- 17Takayoshi Mohara
- 18Opeti Helu
- 19Epineri Uluiviti
- 20Kanji Shimokawa
- 21Taiki Koyama
- 22Tomoki Osada
- 23Takuro Matsunaga
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 3Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 4Sam Darry
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Samipeni Finau
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Stephen Perofeta
Replacements
- 16George Bell
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Peter Lakai+5.9
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22David Havili+0.9
- 23Ruben Love
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 10 |
| 2 | Conversions | 7 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.