Scotland v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 17
2 November 2024Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Dylan Richardson
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18D'Arcy Rae
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Gregor Brown-6.0
- 21Jamie Dobie
- 22Tom Jordan
- 23Stafford McDowall+9.8
Fiji
- 1Haereiti Hetet
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Samu Tawake
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Ratu Rotuisolia
- 6Meli Derenalagi
- 7Kitione Salawa
- 8Elia Canakaivata
- 9Frank Lomani
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Ponipate Loganimasi
- 12Inia Tabuavou
- 13Apisalome Vota
- 14Vuate Karawalevu
- 15Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
Replacements
- 16Mesulame Dolokoto
- 17Livai Natave
- 18Jone Koroiduadua
- 19Mesake Vocevoce
- 20Vilive Miramira
- 21Simione Kuruvoli
- 22Kemu Valetini
- 23Waqa Nalaga
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 126 | Carries | 141 |
| 634m | Carry metres | 319m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 38 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 10 | Offloads | 8 |
| 185 | Passes | 181 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 210 | Tackles made | 149 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 38 |
| 21 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 77.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 50.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 89 | Rucks won | 120 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 388m | Kick metres | 289m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.