England v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 42
9 November 2024Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 6 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Tommy Freeman
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15George Furbank
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 21Harry Randall
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Ollie Sleightholme
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Dylan Pietsch
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Max Jorgensen
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 122 | Carries | 161 |
| 456m | Carry metres | 535m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 13 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 36 |
| 8 | Offloads | 12 |
| 146 | Passes | 182 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 195 | Tackles made | 139 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 36 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 93 | Rucks won | 118 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 648m | Kick metres | 758m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.